NEW DELHI, India — When China announced the creation of new provinces last week, it drew a border that included swaths of territory claimed by India as part of Ladakh, a federally administered region.
India was quick to respond with a public protest. New Delhi “has never accepted China’s illegal occupation of Indian territory in this region,” Indian foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said. He said China’s announcement would give “no legitimacy” to Beijing’s territorial claims.
The latest spat between the Asian giants highlights the fragility of the detente they declared along their disputed border in October, after a four-year standoff between their forces. The neighbors have withdrawn many of their troops, though questions about the future of territory formerly controlled by India but allegedly seized by China since 2020 remain unanswered by both sides.
Now, the India-China relationship looks set for another major test, analysts say: U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
The former president, who effectively launched a trade war with China in his first term, threatened to impose 100% tariffs on imports from China. But while Trump has called Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi a “good guy,” he has also threatened to impose tariffs on India.
As his inauguration approaches — on January 20 — Trump appears to have softened his stance on China, a country central to the business interests of the incoming US president’s ally, billionaire Elon Musk, who is also expected to have a role in the Chinese economy. All of this is causing concern among sections of the strategic community in India.
Trump “has a tendency to flatter his enemies and worry his friends,” said Jayant Prasad, a former Indian diplomat.
In November, shortly after winning the US presidential election, Trump said he would “save” the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, which he owned. He has sought to ban it once. Trump has also invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration. Beijing has neither accepted nor declined the invitation — at least publicly — although some analysts have said Xi is unlikely to attend.
In contrast, Trump is not known to have extended a similar invitation to Modi, with whom the US leader held joint rallies in 2019 and 2020, in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad. Indian social media is awash with memes mocking Modi, suggesting that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Washington late last month was intended to appeal to the Trump team for an invitation to his president.
Analysts say Trump’s ambivalence toward China is troubling New Delhi, who warn that either extreme — a tough anti-China campaign from Washington or a deal with Beijing — would be bad for India.
“There’s a double jeopardy for India in a second (Trump) term,” said Christopher Clary, a nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center and associate professor of political science at the University at Albany.
“Trump and his team may be more hawkish than New Delhi’s preferences, particularly on trade and investment flows, forcing India to make choices it doesn’t want to make,” he told Al Jazeera. Instead, the Trump team may try to strike a grand deal with China to burnish its credentials as the ultimate dealmaker. That would leave India in a bind,” Prasad said.
Prasad also said that while he expected India-US relations to remain strong, there could be some hurdles if Trump decided to strengthen ties with Beijing.
In an editorial last week, the Global Times, a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, called for an approach to relations that focused on cooperation between Beijing and Washington, especially in areas such as technology. The United States, under President Joe Biden, has imposed a series of sanctions and other restrictions on Chinese technology, particularly semiconductors. China has responded with its own restrictions, including on the export of critical minerals to the United States.
India, for its part, is trying to ride out the uncertainty over Trump’s approach to China. Modi is expected to host a meeting of the leaders of the Quad — comprising the United States, India, Japan and Australia — in 2025, which New Delhi wants Trump to travel to India for. On the other hand, China will host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit this year, which Modi may travel to.
After clashes between Indian and Chinese troops in Galwan in Ladakh in May 2020 left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead, New Delhi cracked down on Chinese apps — banning TikTok. India has increased its scrutiny of Chinese investments and infrastructure projects in the country, citing national security concerns. But with inward foreign investment generally slowing, India’s finance ministry made a case in 2024 to encourage Chinese investment again.
Amitabh Mathur, a former special secretary at India’s external intelligence agency, said he believed the United States had been aggressive in its approach to China in recent years and had succeeded in positioning itself as a leading power in the Asia-Pacific region. Strong U.S.-India ties have been key to Washington’s response to Beijing in the region.
While most experts expect Trump to continue this broad approach, some suggest that having allies like Musk on his team could temper what the US president is doing.
“I think the US pivot to India is unlikely to change in the broader context of the Indo-Pacific — while he will try to get a better deal with China,” said Anil Trigunayat, a retired Indian diplomat and strategist. “There is no doubt that Musk and other industrialists on his team will try to play around with the excessive tariff plans.”
What question does India want answered?
