The situation in Syria has reached a critical juncture, where the resolve and leadership of the United States is being tested once again. After the Assad regime was overthrown by the Turkish-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Turkey’s plans to destroy the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are now underway.
In December, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) took control of Manbij and, in cooperation with Turkey, mobilized forces to attack Kobani—the symbolic city of resistance against ISIS. In Kobani, the United States and Kurdish forces formed an alliance that ultimately reversed ISIS’s expansion.
Turkey, which controls the SNA and was the main backer of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham—the two main powerbrokers in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime—seems unwilling to let Syrians address the many issues they face. Instead, Turkey is moving quickly to build on its allies’ victory over Assad to achieve its strategic goal, as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan put it, of “eliminating” the SDF and taking control of northeastern Syria.
Militarily, the SDF, despite being one of the most effective fighting forces in the region, is under enormous pressure. It faces multiple fronts opened by Turkey and its allies, in addition to the ongoing Turkish airstrikes. The battle is no longer an equal contest. The so-called “rebels” have taken over a large part of the Syrian army and enjoy full support and coordination with the second largest army in NATO – Turkey – which provides them with ground forces and air support. The United States, on the other hand, has limited its involvement to counter-terrorism operations, and no other country or power directly supports the SDF.
The SDF will undoubtedly resist with all its might. However, while SDF fighters have demonstrated extraordinary courage and effectiveness on the battlefield, they now face a coalition with air power, heavy artillery, and advanced military resources.
The battle in northeastern Syria will not be as easy for Turkey and its Syrian armed allies as it was against Assad’s exhausted and under-resourced army. However, without air support or air defense systems, it would take nothing short of a miracle for the SDF to achieve victory in open warfare.
The consequences of a potential Turkish and Islamist takeover of northeastern Syria are profound, and have significant implications for U.S. national security interests.
Thousands of ISIS members and those currently detained in northeastern Syria could be released, creating the conditions for an ISIS 2.0 resurgence. Such a development would enable ISIS to retake territory and pose a renewed threat to the United States and its allies in the region. The recent New Orleans attack illustrates the ongoing danger.
Such a takeover would also deal a major blow to the United States’ image as a reliable partner. The SDF has proven itself to be one of the United States’ most trusted and effective allies for decades. A U.S. retreat, similar to the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, would signal to the world that the United States cannot be counted on to deliver on its commitments to the end.
Geopolitically, if the United States loses its partnership with the SDF, it will have little leverage over Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which evolved from the al-Nusra Front and is designated a terrorist organization, or the Syrian National Army. Without 2,000 troops on the ground, the United States will lose its ability to influence Syria’s future, apart from additional sanctions, which could mean another crisis and another missed opportunity for both the United States and the Syrian people.
The United States has set out several key demands regarding Syria’s future—including protecting minorities and ensuring that Syria does not become a haven for terrorism or instability. Without a physical presence in the region, Washington’s ability to enforce these demands will be significantly diminished.
Religious minorities in the region will be among the primary targets of extremist groups now empowered by Turkish-backed forces, and even more so if ISIS were to reemerge and seize territory again.
The precedent is clear. After the 2018 capture of Afrin by the Syrian National Army and Turkey, Yazidis, Christians, and Kurds faced direct persecution, displacement, and, in some cases, gross human rights abuses, such as forced conversion, and other crimes similar to the atrocities committed by ISIS.
If Turkey and its allies take control of northeast Syria, Yazidis, Christians, Kurds, and other minorities will face grave threats to their safety, including mass displacement, persecution, or even enslavement, as we saw during ISIS’s reign of terror. Minorities under the SDF are not only protected, but they participate in self-governance and are treated as equal members of society, in contrast to conditions under Turkey and the Syrian National Army.
We call on the United States to take a comprehensive, multifaceted approach to defending the SDF and the people of northeast Syria. This effort should include support for legislation introduced by Senators Lindsey Graham (R.C.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) to impose comprehensive sanctions on Turkey if it continues with its current plans.
Furthermore, the United States should provide direct military assistance to the SDF, including air defense systems, to give it a fighting chance in this asymmetric war. America’s credibility, the fate of its most trusted allies, and the stability of the entire region are at stake.
Murad Ismail is the president of Sinjar Academy and co-founder and former CEO of Yazda. Nadine Maenza is the head of the IRF Secretariat, a global fellow at the Wilson Center, and the former chair of the US Commission on International Religious Freedom.
