Analysts and officials say China is preparing forces that could seize Taiwan in a future attack.
Any military operation would likely rely in part on China’s military police.
The People’s Armed Police have trained in a wide range of conditions, including water.
China is preparing its military police for the types of combat that would play a major role in any invasion of Taiwan.
A September report from China Central Television shows what appears to be the People’s Armed Police, or PAP, simulating attacks from rubber boats.
Footage and photos from China’s state-run media show the extent of combat training and battlefield simulations — blockade breaches, grenade throwing, battlefield rescues, and group tactics in hot and cold conditions and at high altitudes.
The training suggests that PAP soldiers are “getting ready” to seize Taiwan, said Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington, D.C.
The covert movement by water would be a key capability to suppress resistance in Taiwan’s populated areas near the coast and rivers.
“From my observation, they are trained very hard; they are well equipped and disciplined, and they are given rigorous ideological training for the reason that they are probably, in my view, the primary reserve force for a divisional invasion,” Goldstein said.
“If they go ahead with a full-scale invasion, I think an amphibious assault is not only conceivable, but a very real possibility,” he added.
Urban Training
Since its founding in 1982, the PAP has been a static, shadowy force of the country’s military.
The armed police constitute a shock force in China’s vast state security apparatus. The force plays a major domestic security role, mostly in law enforcement, counterterrorism, disaster response, and maritime rights protection.
Beijing also regularly uses it for propaganda purposes. One likely goal of the recent training deployment was to intimidate Taiwan and its supporters.
People’s Armed Police officers patrol outside the Chinese Communist Party Museum in Beijing on June 25, 2021.
The People’s Armed Police could be used in the later stages of an amphibious assault on Taiwan.
REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Including the PAP in any takeover of Taiwan would make sense given their urban training, said Alessio Patalano, professor of warfare and strategy in East Asia at King’s College London.
He told BI that the PAP keeps “highly skilled” special forces on hand who are involved in surgical operations to achieve strategic objectives where mobility, speed and familiarity with urban operations are key.
The PAP’s special forces maintained security at the Beijing Olympic stadiums in 2008, conducted training in Shenzhen near Hong Kong in 2019 and have been involved in numerous counterterrorism operations in China’s Xinjiang region over the years, according to Chinese state-run media.
“To this extent, whether in decapitation scenarios or the early stages of operations to seize key port and airport infrastructure, the use of PAP should be considered a viable, if not preferred, option,” Patalano said.
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Supporting role
The PAP is unlikely to be involved in the early stages of any landing on the island.
“That’s the PLA’s purview,” said Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow at the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University in the capital. The PLA is China’s main military — the People’s Liberation Army.
He said the PAP would instead initially engage in internal security operations on the Chinese mainland, including quelling signs of social unrest, protecting critical infrastructure and clearing national highways to facilitate the delivery of supplies to areas near Taiwan.
Any attempt to seize Taiwan, a self-ruled island of 23 million people that Beijing considers a breakaway province, would require warships, armored vehicles and heavy firepower to counter Taiwan’s advanced missiles, tanks and F-16 fighter jets.
Armed Chinese police officers and soldiers use rubber boats to search for people trapped in the village of Shilong in southern China on June 5, 2024.
The People’s Armed Police could play a major role in any invasion of Taiwan.
Costphoto/Norphoto via Getty Images
However, if the PLA’s operations in Taiwan do not go according to plan and face a prolonged campaign, Wuthnow said the People’s Action Party’s special operations forces could be mobilized to establish military rule through missions in urban areas such as Taipei.
Another aspect of the PAP’s response could involve the Chinese Coast Guard, which it would oversee.
The Coast Guard is already “largely” on the front lines of China’s “coercive” campaign against Taiwan, Wuthnow said, and its role appears to be increasing.
At the same time, Taiwan’s mountainous terrain, coupled with few major land routes and numerous river crossings, would make it difficult for any invading forces to move.
“If the Taiwanese population does not comply with the PRC-led occupation authority, the period during which the PRC will need to rely on its own police could be very long,” said Philip Shetler-Jones, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security, a think tank at the Royal United Services Institute in the United Kingdom, using the acronym for the People’s Republic of China.
The more the PAP forces are able to take on the “public order” role, the more combat troops will be freed up, he added.
Imminent invasion
Military experts and defense officials see signs — such as the rapid modernization of China’s armed forces over the past two decades and exercises around Taiwan — that China is capable of taking action within a few years.
But what form that action would take is up for debate, ranging from a blockade to a full-scale invasion.
During a 2021 hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, then-US Indo-Pacific commander Adm. Phil Davidson said Taiwan was “clearly” one of China’s “ambitions,” and that he believed the threat would be “clear” within the next six years.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping said in October, as part of the country’s anniversary celebrations, that reunification with Taiwan “is where the greatest national interest lies, and that’s what the people desire.”
“The wheel of history is not going to be stopped by any individual or force,” he added.
Defense Priorities’ Goldstein, who describes himself as a bit of an outsider, said he believed China was ready to take over Taiwan now “if they so chose,” and that the People’s Action Party’s special operations forces would likely play a significant role.
“They would be in very high demand in a Taiwan scenario,” he said.
China views Taiwan as its internal security concern, he added. “So it’s entirely legitimate for them to use those forces.”
